China’s population shrinks by 3.39 million in 2025 as births hit record low

China’s population declined for the fourth year in a row in 2025, according to official data released on 19 January 2026 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The total population fell by 3.39 million to reach 1.405 billion by the end of the year.

The decline was driven by a continued drop in births and a rise in deaths. NBS Director Kang Yi reported that only 7.92 million births were recorded in 2025, down from 9.54 million in 2024. Deaths rose to 11.31 million from 10.93 million the previous year. The natural population growth rate stood at -2.41‰.

This is the lowest birth figure recorded in China since 1949, with a birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000 people. The data confirms forecasts made by demographers such as He Yafu, who warned that births would fall well below 9 million.

China’s shrinking population has been a source of concern for policymakers, particularly as the proportion of elderly residents rises. However, according to data from the 2025 1% national population sampling survey, China still retains strong demographic advantages in labour size, education, and innovation capacity.

At the end of 2025, the working-age population (16–59 years) stood at 851.36 million. Under the international labour age definition of 15–64 years, this group reached 968.48 million, accounting for 68.9% of the total population. Despite a rise in the elderly population, many aged 60–64 remain active in the workforce and society.

The number of people aged 60 and above was 323.38 million in 2025, including 223.65 million aged 65 or older. Both figures increased from the previous year by 13.07 million and 3.42 million respectively, highlighting the pace of ageing.

Yet population quality indicators showed improvement. The average years of education for people aged 16–59 rose to 11.3 years, up by 0.1 from 2024. Life expectancy in 2024 was reported at 79 years. China also had 10.8 million R&D personnel in 2025, suggesting a continued shift from a quantity-based demographic dividend to a quality-based talent dividend.

Urbanisation continued its steady advance. By the end of 2025, China’s urban population reached 953.8 million, an increase of 10.3 million from the previous year. The urbanisation rate rose to 67.89%, up 0.89 percentage points. Authorities said this trend would help stimulate domestic demand and raise living standards.

Marriages, however, continued to decline sharply, with 6.1 million couples registering in 2024 — a 20% drop from 2023. This is a significant concern, as marriage rates are a leading indicator of birth trends.

In response to ongoing demographic shifts, Chinese authorities have expanded policy efforts. These include family support initiatives such as childcare subsidies, growth in affordable early childhood education services, and the expansion of quality educational resources.

The government also emphasised the implementation of a whole-of-life population service system and broader strategies such as the Healthy China initiative, active ageing measures, and people-centred urbanisation.

Despite the policy moves, challenges remain. According to Nikkei Asia, raising a child to adulthood in China costs on average 6.3 times the per capita GDP — higher than in many developed countries. In first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, costs can exceed RMB 885,000 (approx. US$124,000), while household income levels remain moderate in comparison.

Youth unemployment also continues to weigh heavily. Although the method of calculating youth unemployment was changed in 2025 to exclude students, the jobless rate among non-student 16–24-year-olds remained high at 16.9% as of November 2025.

Voices from within the country reflect this social unease. Young people interviewed by Epoch Times expressed reluctance to marry or start families, citing economic pressure, job insecurity, and disillusionment with the future. The phrase “we are the last generation”, originating during the 2022 Shanghai lockdowns, continues to resonate among many of China’s youth.