Singapore raises 2025 GDP growth forecast to between 1.5% and 2.5%
Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) has upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast following stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year and a temporary easing of trade tensions.
- The GDP forecast has been raised to 1.5–2.5%, up from 0–2%.
- Second-quarter GDP grew 4.4% year-on-year, exceeding earlier estimates.
- The upgrade follows a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs that lifted trade and production.
SINGAPORE: The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced on 12 August 2025 that Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the year has been raised to between 1.5% and 2.5%, up from the previous range of 0% to 2%.
The revision follows a stronger-than-expected 4.4% year-on-year expansion in the second quarter, slightly above the advance estimate of 4.3%.
First-quarter GDP rose by 4.1%, bringing first-half growth to 4.3% compared with the same period in 2024.
According to MTI, the improved performance in the first half of the year played a significant role in the upward revision.
Upgrade follows 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs
This is the second upgrade in 2025.
The initial forecast, made earlier in the year, projected growth between 1% and 3%, but it was later downgraded in April after US President Donald Trump announced a global baseline tariff of 10%, alongside reciprocal tariffs on multiple economies.
MTI maintained the lower range of 0% to 2% in May, citing the potential drag on global trade.
The latest revision comes after a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, during which many economies showed stronger-than-expected performance.
MTI noted that the pause delayed potential negative impacts and allowed for frontloading in trade and production, providing a short-term boost to exports.
However, the ministry cautioned that the improved first-half results do not eliminate challenges ahead.
Outlook for second half remains cautious
While acknowledging the strong early performance, MTI warned that the outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains uncertain.
“Singapore’s economic outlook for the rest of the year remains clouded by uncertainty, with the risks tilted to the downside,” it said in a statement.
The ministry expects both global and domestic conditions to soften in the second half of the year as trade activity normalises and policy uncertainty persists.
MTI said it will continue to monitor global developments and adjust its forecast if necessary, highlighting the importance of vigilance amid volatile trade policies and shifting market sentiment.
0 Comments