Russia could escalate Indo-Pacific tensions in event of Taiwan conflict, says Taiwan’s security chief

Russia could bolster China with military logistics and undertake provocative actions in other Indo-Pacific areas should Beijing resort to force against Taiwan, Director-General of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB), Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥), told legislators on 17 December.

Speaking before the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, Tsai noted that any Russian involvement could serve to “increase regional complexity,” complicating military responses by the United States and its allies.

According to Tsai, the NSB is closely monitoring indicators of China-Russia military cooperation through intelligence exchanges with international partners. So far in 2025, he has participated in nearly 100 bilateral meetings on Indo-Pacific security with representatives from 45 countries.

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers Chen Chun-yu (陳俊宇) and Wang Ting-yu (王定宇) raised the issue of Russia’s potential role in a conflict scenario. Tsai advised that particular attention should be paid to whether Russian forces begin conducting patrols near the Taiwan Strait, in the Western Pacific, or around Japan’s Miyako Island.

In support of these assessments, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) provided further context. Defence Minister Wellington Koo (顧立雄) addressed the committee alongside Tsai, highlighting that a joint China-Russia aerial patrol had recently sent a “clear message” of their growing coordination.

Koo also noted Beijing's dissatisfaction following comments made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who, during a parliamentary session on 7 November, stated that any Chinese use of force against Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening” crisis for Japan, potentially justifying a military response.

Rising military pressure and regional provocations

According to a formal report submitted by the NSB and MND to the legislature, the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan’s surrounding airspace reached a new high in 2025, with over 3,570 incursions recorded as of 15 December. This surpasses the 3,070 cases reported in 2024.

The report also detailed 39 instances of joint Chinese air and naval “combat readiness patrols” around Taiwan. These operations are believed to be aimed at testing Taiwan’s early warning and response mechanisms while consolidating China’s battlefield management over the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese coast guard vessels have additionally increased their incursions into restricted waters around Taiwan’s offshore islands, including routine patrols around Kinmen and Dongsha, and irregular entries intended to assert control.

One such incident occurred on 6 December, when three Chinese law enforcement vessels crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and conducted a purported “law enforcement and search-and-rescue drill.” Taiwan has accused China of using such actions to blur maritime boundaries and assert jurisdictional claims over the Taiwan Strait.

Intensified China-Russia coordination

A key event raising concern was a joint aerial patrol involving Chinese H-6K and Russian Tu-95 bombers on 9 December. The aircraft entered South Korean and Japanese air defence identification zones and approached airspace south of Shikoku, Japan. This activity followed two incidents in which Chinese J-15 fighter jets locked their radar on Japanese F-15s near Okinawa on 6 December.

The United States responded on 10 December by deploying a B-52 strategic bomber for a joint patrol with Japanese F-35 and F-15 fighters over the Sea of Japan.

Simultaneously, the USS George Washington carrier group conducted joint drills with Japan’s JS Akizuki from 8 to 11 December, followed by a US-Japan defence ministers’ call on 12 December affirming their joint deterrence capabilities.

Strategic deployments and allied cooperation

The report underscores the interconnected nature of regional tensions across the East and South China Seas and the Taiwan Strait. The MND noted that China is expanding its "grey zone" tactics — including unmanned aerial vehicles, balloon surveillance, and sabotage of undersea communication cables — to increase psychological and operational pressure on Taiwan.

In response, Taiwan’s military is accelerating development in four key areas: asymmetric warfare capabilities, defensive resilience, reserve force enhancement, and counter-grey zone operations. These efforts form the basis of its "Taiwan Shield" defence initiative.

The US and its allies have likewise intensified their regional presence. Advanced missile systems such as the “Typhon” mid-range system and “NMESIS” anti-ship systems have been deployed to strategic locations across Japan and the Philippines, including Okinawa, Miyako, and Palawan.

Meanwhile, China continues to deepen military and economic ties with Russia and North Korea, alongside its expansion of influence through regional economic agreements and infrastructure diplomacy.

The NSB and MND reports conclude that maintaining security in the Taiwan Strait is integral to Indo-Pacific and global stability. Taiwan’s security agencies reaffirmed their commitment to close coordination with international partners through strategic dialogue and intelligence sharing.