Leaked Chinese general letter alleges Xi sought war, framing Taiwan reunification as personal legacy

CHINA: A separate focus of the alleged leaked letter attributed to former Chinese general Zhang Youxia centred on claims that China’s top leadership had been actively seeking an opportunity to wage war.

According to The Epoch Times, the letter stated that Zhang believed Xi Jinping harboured a deep personal desire to command a large-scale conflict.

Zhang was quoted as saying that Xi had been “constantly looking for an opportunity” to initiate war, driven more by ambition than by strategic necessity.

The letter reportedly warned that such thinking posed an existential risk to both the country and the Communist Party.

Taiwan as the central flashpoint

Particular emphasis in the letter was placed on Taiwan, with Zhang allegedly cautioning that any military action would differ fundamentally from earlier, limited conflicts.

He was quoted as warning that a conflict involving Taiwan would almost certainly draw in the United States and Japan, triggering rapid regional escalation.

According to the document, casualties could reach tens or even hundreds of thousands of soldiers, with devastating political and economic consequences.

Zhang reportedly argued that such a war could also trigger internal instability, including the risk of mutiny or mass unrest within China.

He allegedly warned that these outcomes could ultimately result in violent reckonings against those who initiated the conflict.

Military role and internal restraint

The letter framed the military’s role as fundamentally defensive, arguing that treating the armed forces primarily as a tool for war represented a profound strategic error.

Zhang claimed that while he remained within the Central Military Commission, he had been able to restrain or advise against what he described as reckless decisions.

He reportedly expressed concern that his detention removed one of the last internal checks on Xi’s decision-making.

Reassessment of China–Russia alignment

The document also included reflections on China’s foreign policy alignment with Russia.

Zhang allegedly acknowledged that he had passively supported Xi’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow, a stance he later viewed as a mistake.

He was quoted as saying that China had overestimated Russia’s military capabilities and expected a swift victory in Ukraine.

Instead, the prolonged war, he claimed, had led to hostility from both Ukraine and much of Europe, damaging China’s international standing.

Zhang reportedly described a visit to Russia in which he received high-level protocol treatment but encountered strained and ultimately unproductive discussions.

Parallels with Ukraine and warnings of catastrophic losses

Drawing parallels between the Ukraine war and a potential Taiwan conflict, Zhang warned that both scenarios would result in immense human suffering.

He cited assessments by military strategist and former PLA's Air Force general Liu Yazhou, suggesting that an amphibious assault on Taiwan would incur catastrophic losses.

“Tens or even hundreds of thousands of soldiers could be poured into the sea without ever reaching Taiwan,” the letter stated.

“Once war begins, Japan will be drawn in, and military facilities, bridges and fuel depots along China’s southern coast would be destroyed within hours.”

“We could destroy some buildings in Taiwan, but in the end we would still face war reparations,” the letter added.

Zhang also warned of frozen overseas assets and massive compensation payments, describing a scenario in which the state could face severe economic collapse.

Notably, Liu Yazhou, cited in the letter, had been sentenced to life imprisonment at the end of 2023, despite previously being regarded as a reform-minded strategist during the administrations of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

Criticism of political culture and personal legacy

Zhang’s letter attributed Xi’s alleged war ambitions partly to a political environment dominated by sycophantic advisers.

He reportedly claimed that those surrounding Xi promoted narratives of historic greatness, portraying reunification with Taiwan as the fulfilment of a personal legacy.

“Xi’s problem lies with a group of flatterers around him,” the letter stated.

“They have talked him into believing he is a once-in-a-generation great leader, that taking Taiwan would realise the Chinese Dream and make him even greater than Mao.”

Zhang suggested that officials who spoke candidly were marginalised or imprisoned, leaving little space for dissent within the leadership.

The letter portrayed Zhang’s own position as increasingly isolated within the political and military hierarchy.

Taiwan’s response and regional concerns

Zhang’s expulsion and investigation also drew attention in Taiwan.

On 29 January, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said the government would take a prudent approach in assessing the implications of China’s investigation into Zhang for cross-strait security.

Deputy head and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh said scholars had offered two “extreme” interpretations of the situation.

“Some argue it increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, while others say it makes Beijing less likely to do so in the short term,” Liang said.

“Our government’s stance is to take a prudent approach and be fully prepared,” he added, without detailing specific measures.